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Barack Obama’s Vice President Pick: A Twitter Conversational Analysis

Here’s a Neoformix analysis of Twitter conversations that happened yesterday and today about Obama’s running mate.

Evan Bayh:
Neoformix analysis of the keyword Bayh

Joe Biden:
Neoformix analysis of the keyword Biden

If I understand correctly, Neoformix only analyzes a set quantity of Tweets (I don’t have the specifics.) Knowing that this number is the constant, we have something to analyze everything else by.

For example, note how:

  • More tweets are made about Bayh (higher number on y-axis) less frequently (longer period on x-axis.) Conversely, less tweets were made about Biden more frequently.
  • Bayh’s Tweets “exploded” during the early part of the afternoon (this was tied to yesterday evening’s bumper sticker debacle) then remained small (when Obama announced Biden’s pick,) while Biden’s Tweets was relatively stable throughout the night.
  • Bayh’s Tweets often mentioned the other two potential candidates (Biden and Kaine,) while Biden’s mention his first name and Obama’s—with bits of McCain here and there.

My theory: in predicting political candidate, a Twitter stream’s relative stability is a much bigger factor than its quantity.

But this got me thinking. Could this also mean that the factors lined out above can be used to predict who McCain’s running mate will be?

Joe Lieberman:
Neoformix analysis of the keyword Mccain and Biden

Tom Ridge:
Neoformix analysis of the keyword Mccain and Ridge

I’ll leave the thinking part to you.


4 thoughts on “Barack Obama’s Vice President Pick: A Twitter Conversational Analysis

  1. Wow, this is really interesting. I think you should try to predict McCain’s running mate and then publicize the hell out of it if you are correct. You’ll be famous!

  2. Doug,

    For some reason, the results aren’t very much different when I plug in the same keywords tonight.

    I’d rather wait until the conversation sparks, but as a general rule of thumb, most early to late adopters and active users of new technology (ie. Twitter,) tend to be more liberal. Only when the medium hits somewhat mainstream (ie. blog) will the more conservative folks jump in.

    This may explain the relative slowness of conversations happening around the Republican candidates—and if they’re indeed talked about, it will tend to be in context of their Democrat counterparts.

  3. Good point about liberals being more active users of new technology. I’m glad that you acknowledge sociological issues when you study statistics. Especially in this new age of social media, it is important to pay attention to such things. At the very least, this is something interesting and worthwhile to study. In many ways, you are a pioneer. Keep it up 🙂

  4. Pingback: Recent Links Tagged With "twitter" - JabberTags

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